BBLO Tycoon

Import ยท Bottle ยท Advertise ยท Survive 5 years

Game mode ๐ŸŽš๏ธ

Choose your economy. Changing mode resets the game so the starting cash and conditions apply cleanly.
Cash
Month
Loan left
Owners paid
$0
Repeat customers
0
Satisfaction
72%
Brand
0

Warehouse & sales

Real 2026 rebrand costings, prices ex GST (inc-GST shown in grey). โ˜… = best seller. Use โˆ’ / + to build this month's PO in 1000-bottle steps โ€” pay 70% on order, 30% at bottling. Sea ~150 days, bottling ~60 days. 3-yr shelf life from purchase โ€” distributors only buy 12+ mo dated stock, direct shops 6+ mo, retail 3+ mo. Goal: repay the owners' $400k loan (Pete 68% / Tim 32%) and pay them $35k each per year ($350k over 5 yrs).
This month's orderโ€”

Rebrand โœจ

Byron Bay Love Oils โ†’ Love Organics. A one-time relaunch moves every product to its new Love Organics price (about +40% on average) and improves unit costs through better sourcing. Demand dips short-term as customers adjust, but margin jumps. Costs $10,000 in rebrand content โ€” new product photography, brand films, launch creative and campaign ads.

Black Seed Capsules ๐Ÿ’Š

Develop and launch a new Black Seed Capsules 60 line โ€” a high-margin ingestible ($15 cost on a $54.55 ex-GST sale). Requires the Love Organics rebrand first. Costs $20,000 in marketing & branding (product development, packaging, launch campaign). Once launched, order stock in the warehouse like any product.

Sales channels

Wholesale runs ~70% of volume today; online ads grow the retail share. We pay all wholesale shipping, but it goes in bulk so it's cheap per bottle.
โ–  Retail D2Cโ–  Wholesale shopsโ–  Distributors
Distributor share of trade80%
Distributors reach ~1.5ร— more doors but buy below wholesale: 80% of their volume at 25% off, 10% at 20% off, 10% at 15% off (blended ~76.5% of WS). They pay on terms โ€” cash arrives 2 months after the sale.
Trade ads (magazines)$0
The main lever for wholesale โ€” and especially distributors. Trade press opens distributor doors that digital ads can't reach. Slow but sticky.

On the water ๐Ÿšข

Shipments in transit from origin โ†’ Sydney facility (~150 days by sea)

Bottling plant ๐Ÿญ

Landed bulk oil must be booked into the TGA facility โ€” bottling takes ~60 days (2 months) and the 30% balance is due at booking

Promotion calendar

Key retail moments โ€” order stock ~7 months before the big ones

Monthly online ad budget

Ad channels use real 2025-26 skincare/supplement ROAS: Google ~4.4ร— at $2k (high-intent search; ROAS declines smoothly as you scale โ€” ~5ร— at $1k down to ~3ร— at $6k, as you exhaust high-intent searchers), Facebook ~2.2ร— (weak cold prospecting), Instagram ~2.7ร— (also builds repeat customers), TikTok ~1.4ร— base with rare viral upside. These digital channels drive D2C retail โ€” they only nudge wholesale (~10%). To grow wholesale and distributors, use the trade magazine below.
๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ’ป Marketing hire (salary)none
Better creative, testing & optimisation lift ROAS on ALL paid channels โ€” senior talent costs more but diminishing returns apply
Total online marketing$0 / mo

SEO & content

Product descriptions, blogs, backlinks. Compounds into free organic D2C sales every month.
Monthly investment$0
Authority โ€” 0 pts

Profit First buckets ๐Ÿชฃ

Profit First: every month, revenue is allocated FIRST into buckets โ€” so profit, tax and stock money are set aside before you can spend on OpEx. GST is auto-reserved at 10% of sales. Adjust the rest below (must total 100%).
Spendable (OpEx + buckets released)

Investor ๐Ÿค

Raise growth capital by selling equity. An investor pays a premium on the current business valuation, but dilutes Pete & Tim's ownership permanently. Cash hits the bank immediately โ€” useful for funding stock or the rebrand without debt.
Current ownershipPete 68% ยท Tim 32%
Equity to sell10%
Investment raisedโ€”

Owner salary ๐Ÿ‘‘

The owners currently pay themselves nothing. The whole point of the business: pay the owners a real salary AND clear their $400k loan. Win: $350,000 total owner pay ($35k each per year, ~$70k/yr combined) + the $400k loan fully repaid (Pete 68% / Tim 32%).
OwnershipPete 68% ยท Tim 32%
Paid to owners so far$0
Monthly owner salary$0
Pay it only when the business can afford it โ€” but the clock is ticking

Bank loan facility ๐Ÿฆ

The owners lent the business $400,000 interest-free โ€” repayment pace is up to you. Separately, borrow up to $150,000 at 10% p.a. โ€” interest charged monthly on the outstanding balance. At this volume a Black Seed reorder alone can run $40k+ โ€” the facility exists because stock is bought 7 months before it sells.
Owners' loan (interest-free)$400,000
Split owedPete $272,000 ยท Tim $128,000
Monthly repayment to owners$0
It's a personal loan from the owners โ€” repay at whatever pace cash flow allows
Bank facility outstanding$0
Facility interest next month$0

Break-even meter โš–๏ธ

Where this month's operating profit sits relative to break-even (covering all costs).

Cashflow forecast ๐Ÿ”ฎ

Projected cash over the next 6 months at your current run-rate, including scheduled stock payments and distributor receivables (paid 2 months after sale). A guide, not a guarantee.

Monthly profit

Operating profit per month (rounded to $k)

Channel dashboard

This month's result โ€” โ–  Retail D2C vs โ–  Wholesale (shops + distributors), with change vs last month.
Run a month to populate the dashboard.

Business valuation ๐Ÿ’ผ

Australian SME best practice: Seller's Discretionary Earnings (SDE) method. SDE = operating profit + the owners' addback (salary + their loan repayments, since a buyer wouldn't carry the founders' personal loan). A base e-commerce multiple of ~3ร— is adjusted for the value drivers buyers reward, then we add net stock and cash and subtract bank debt.
Trade for a few months to build a 12-month earnings history, then a valuation will appear.

Trading log

Fixed overheads $10,000/mo (wages, rent, agency, software) + real scaling costs per bottle sold โ€” Retail: 3PL $3.81, storage $0.03, post subsidy $0.51, banking $0.98 (= $5.33/btl). Shops & distributors: 3PL $0.70, storage $0.03, shipping we pay $1.31, banking $0.01 (= $2.05/btl).
Calibrated to last year's real sales mix at ~$2k/mo Google ads. With no ads, income falls to ~$6k/mo. You start with a full year of stock already paid for, your starting cash, nothing on the water, ads OFF, and 80% of trade via distributors (who pay 2 months after sale). Pre-rebrand the business loses money โ€” the rebrand is what makes it profitable. Five years on the clock. Tune the levers and run your first month.

AI Strategy Tester ๐Ÿค–

The AI plays the exact same game engine you do โ€” headlessly, with no clicking โ€” thousands of times to find what maximises business valuation after 60 months. Results use seeded randomness so they're repeatable, but will shift as you change sim counts because each game rolls different market luck.
Pick a run size. 100 and 1,000 are quick; 10,000 takes a few seconds and runs in batches so the page stays responsive.

Strategy Results ๐Ÿ“Š

Run the AI tester first โ€” results appear here.

Yearly Business Reports ๐Ÿ“…

Your human game's year-by-year story (updates as you pass each December). The AI's best run is shown too after you run a test.

Director's Guide ๐Ÿ“–

What this is. A five-year simulation of running Love Organics โ€” importing oils, bottling in MIRON glass, advertising, and selling through retail (D2C), wholesale shops and distributors. Make decisions each month for 60 months and build the most valuable, solvent business you can.

The goal โ€” by month 60, without ever running out of cash:

  • Repay the owners' $400,000 loan (split Pete 68% / Tim 32%).
  • Pay the owners $350,000 in salary ($35k each per year, split equally).
  • Maximise the final business valuation.

If cash ever drops below zero you're bankrupt. Survival comes first.

The single most important thing. At your starting (pre-rebrand) prices the business loses money โ€” about $5โ€“6k/month โ€” and no amount of advertising fixes that; the margins can't cover the $10k/month overheads. This is true to life: it's why the real business rebranded. So the game is a race: survive long enough to launch the rebrand, which lifts prices to profitable levels. You start with a full year of stock already paid for โ€” that's your runway.

The monthly levers.

  • Order stock: 70% paid on order, 30% at bottling. Sea freight ~5 months, air ~1 month (+20%), then ~2 months bottling โ€” so sea stock isn't sellable for ~7 months. 3-year shelf life on reorders; your opening stock lasts only 2 years. Most products order in 1,000s; Black Seed in 10,000s.
  • Digital ads โ†’ retail. Google ~4.4ร— (best; tapers smoothly as you scale), Instagram ~2.7ร— (builds repeat customers), Facebook ~2.2ร—, TikTok ~1.4ร— (rare viral upside). These drive D2C retail and only nudge wholesale ~10%.
  • Trade magazine โ†’ wholesale & distributors. This is the lever that grows the trade channel โ€” trade press opens distributor doors digital can't.
  • Prices: โˆ’30% to +50%. Higher price = better margin, lower volume (~12% fewer sales per +10%).
  • Distributor share: splits wholesale between distributors (volume, deep discount, widest reach) and direct shops (better margin). Distributors pay 2 months after the sale.
  • Cash: loan repayment, owner salary, Profit First buckets, and a $150k bank facility (10% interest) to bridge gaps.

Repeat customers are built mainly by Instagram (~1 per $110) and a little by Facebook โ€” they're cumulative and pay off as standing demand, higher satisfaction, and a higher valuation (bump at 120+, bigger at 300+).

The rebrand & capsules. Launch rebrand ($10k) moves to new pricing (~+40%) and lower costs โ€” it's what makes you profitable, so do it early. Capsules ($20k, after rebrand) add a high-margin product.

Dashboards. The Break-even meter shows if you cleared break-even; the Cashflow forecast projects 6 months ahead and warns of a cash-out; Satisfaction and Brand (top stats row) reflect operational health and both feed your valuation.

How you go bankrupt: over-ordering early, over-spending on ads while still pre-rebrand, never rebranding, drawing salary/repaying the loan too soon, stocking out, or letting opening stock expire. Avoid these and the game is very winnable.

Winning Playbook ๐Ÿ†

A step-by-step plan for the standard game, built from an actual winning run. In one sentence: rebrand immediately, sit on your year of stock while the rebrand makes you profitable, reorder before you run dry, then pour profit into the loan first and salary second.

Phase 1 โ€” Rebrand & survive (months 1โ€“2)

  • Month 1: launch the rebrand straight away ($10k). Most important move in the game. Cash will dip to ~$6k โ€” that's fine.
  • Set Google low (~$800โ€“1,200). Don't order stock โ€” live off your year of inventory. SEO trickle, trade magazine ~$1,000.
  • Month 2: the rebrand kicks in, revenue jumps to ~$30k+, you turn a small profit. Still lean, still no reorder.

Phase 2 โ€” Build the engine (months 3โ€“8)

  • Scale Google to ~$2.5โ€“3.5k and add Instagram ~$1โ€“1.5k (repeat customers). Fund the trade magazine ~$1.5k for wholesale.
  • Start reordering around month 6 โ€” the pipeline is ~7 months, so order before you run dry. Keep ~12 months' cover. Black Seed orders in 10,000s (~$70k deposit) โ€” time it for when cash allows or use the bank.
  • If something's about to run out, switch that order to air freight.
  • ~Month 7: launch capsules ($20k) once cash is comfortably above ~$45k.
  • Begin token loan repayments (~$6โ€“8k/mo) once reliably profitable.

Phase 3 โ€” Pay down the loan (months 9โ€“36)

  • Hold ads steady (don't over-scale โ€” returns diminish). Reorder steadily; never stock out.
  • Repay the loan aggressively ($8โ€“12k/mo) whenever cash is above ~$45k.
  • Start drawing salary (~$5โ€“8k/mo) โ€” but loan stays the priority.
  • Keep a $25โ€“30k cash buffer. Sell through opening stock before it expires at month 24.
  • Target by month 36: loan ~half gone (~$175k), ~$140k salary paid.

Phase 4 โ€” Finish the loan (months 36โ€“57)

  • Keep the machine running; throw spare cash ($10k+/mo) at the loan until it hits $0 around month 57. Keep drawing salary alongside.

Phase 5 โ€” Bank the salary (months 57โ€“60)

  • Loan gone โ€” pour everything into owner salary (up to $20k/mo) to reach the $350k target. Cross month 60 with loan repaid and salary paid: you've won.

Golden rules: rebrand turn 1 ยท never stock out (use air to bridge) ยท don't over-order/over-spend early ยท loan first, salary second ยท keep a ~$25โ€“30k buffer ยท sell opening stock before month 24 ยท act early when the cashflow forecast warns.

Each month, glance at: 1) Cashflow forecast โ€” trouble ahead? 2) Stock โ€” anything about to run dry? 3) Break-even meter โ€” above the line? 4) Ads โ€” Google+Instagram for retail, trade magazine for wholesale. 5) Capital โ€” loan first, then salary, keep the buffer.

Tuned for "Business as Usual." Boom is more forgiving; Recession is brutal โ€” leaner ads, bigger buffer.

How it works โ“

Playing manually. On the Play tab, set your levers each month โ€” stock orders, ad spend, prices, channel mix, loan repayment, owner salary โ€” then tap Run month. You're steering BBLO across 5 years (60 months), trying to clear the owners' $400k loan (split Pete 68% / Tim 32%), pay $350k in salary, and build the biggest business valuation without running out of cash. See the Guide and Playbook tabs for the full strategy.

The 5 phases.

  • Year 1 โ€” Survival: test pricing, find demand, guard cash.
  • Year 2 โ€” Growth: build brand, raise stock, hire carefully, grow repeat customers.
  • Year 3 โ€” Expansion: wholesale opportunities, rising ad costs, more competition.
  • Year 4 โ€” Pressure: higher fixed costs, supply risk, defend margins.
  • Year 5 โ€” Maturity: stabilise, maximise valuation, profit, brand and satisfaction.

Running AI simulations. On the AI Tester tab, choose 100 / 1,000 / 10,000. Each strategy plays full 60-month games on the same engine and the averages land in the Results tab. Monte Carlo looks ahead each month (slower); Evolve breeds and mutates settings over generations to discover a tuned policy.

Reading the results. Avg score is valuation minus penalties (bankruptcy, stockouts, loss months, low satisfaction, excess debt). Win rate = finished solvent with the owners' loan cleared. Bankruptcy rate shows how often the strategy ran out of cash. Compare avg valuation, profit and risk to see the trade-offs.

Why results move. Every month adds seeded market randomness โ€” viral TikToks, port delays, COGS creep, algorithm dips. More simulations average that luck out, so a 10,000-run result is a steadier read on a strategy's true quality than 100.